Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x355d…12e5 weather 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%102W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 39% −$1
sports 25% +$5
world 10% −$22
other 9% +$2
politics 5% +$1
culture 5% +$1
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 5 -18.9% -26.6% 80% 0% -27.2%
≤90d 26 -2.5% -11.8% 96% 0% -12.7%
all 104 -0.6% -10.0% 98% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses102 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage156d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +2%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the May 31 $18 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $29 $0 +1%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Apr 24 $22 +$1 +3%
Will "Mother Mary" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete Apr 21 $17 $0 +1%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Apr 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will Aksel V. Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands fol Apr 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will "House Tour" get between 12 and 13 million views in the first wee Apr 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12m and $13m? Apr 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 63 and 64 million views on day Apr 07 $23 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Russia enter Myrne by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 1 be between 2,600,0 Apr 02 $15 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31? Apr 01 $19 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? Apr 01 $18 $0 +2%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 27 $22 $0 +2%
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 19.5m and 21m? Mar 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on March 20? Mar 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on March 19? Mar 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 20? Mar 22 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 19? Mar 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 19? Mar 19 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 19? Mar 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 19? Mar 19 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 18? Mar 18 $23 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 18? Mar 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 34°C or higher on March 1 Mar 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 16? Mar 16 $24 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on March 16? Mar 16 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on March 16? Mar 16 $20 $0 +1%
Suns vs. Raptors Mar 14 $20 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Magic Mar 12 $17 +$1 +5%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $16 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Clippers Mar 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Mar 09 $20 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Kings Mar 09 $20 $0 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $20 $0 +0%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 06 $19 +$1 +3%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 05 $20 $0 +2%
76ers vs. Celtics Mar 05 $20 $0 +2%
Suns vs. Kings Mar 05 $20 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 02 $20 $0 +2%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Mar 02 $20 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets Mar 02 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 99¢ $16 19h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 28h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $18 30h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 97¢ $16 33h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the SELL No 99¢ $19 18d
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 97¢ $18 18d
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 21d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? BUY Yes 97¢ $24 24d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 99¢ $29 50d
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 55d
Will White House post 120-139 posts from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 55d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April SELL No 100¢ $23 55d
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April BUY No 97¢ $22 56d
Will "Mother Mary" score at least 75 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatomete BUY No 99¢ $17 60d
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? BUY No 99¢ $18 63d
Will "House Tour" get between 12 and 13 million views in the first wee SELL No 100¢ $20 66d
Will "House Tour" get between 12 and 13 million views in the first wee BUY No 99¢ $20 67d
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 63 and 64 million views on day SELL No 99¢ $24 72d
Will MrBeast's latest video get between 63 and 64 million views on day BUY No 97¢ $23 72d
Will "The Drama" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $12m and $13m? BUY No 99¢ $25 74d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 1 be between 2,600,0 SELL No 100¢ $15 77d
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $19 78d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $18 78d
Will the total number of TSA passengers for April 1 be between 2,600,0 BUY No 98¢ $15 79d
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 79d
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $19 80d
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $18 80d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 80d
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 210 history records