Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x355c…e6d4 world 466 markets active 1h ago coverage 775d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16,871 (+11%) realized +$17,858 · open −$987
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%211W / 226L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2,030now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$696
14 days−$197
30 days+$788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$14,411
politics 27% +$9,338
sports 11% −$764
other 11% −$2,405
crypto 3% −$2,014
economics 1% −$1,246
finance 1% −$104
tech 0% −$329
culture 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 46% +3.8%
≤30d 36 +4.0% -5.9% 53% 47% -2.9%
≤90d 129 +5.6% -4.5% 52% 45% -2.1%
all 437 -1.0% -10.4% 48% 43% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 43% +0.9%
10% -19.0% 36% -8.8%
15% -26.8% 32% -17.6%
20% -34.0% 26% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$260 vs −$163 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

775d coverage
Net worth$2,030
Realized+$17,858
Unrealized−$987
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses211 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions29
Markets (closed)437 / 466
History coverage775d
Avg bet$341
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 437 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $1,462 $812 −$650 (-44%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 27¢ $140 $251 +$111 (+79%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 55¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 55¢ 98¢ $100 $180 +$80 (+80%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 14¢ $200 $159 −$41 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 78¢ $100 $123 +$23 (+23%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $61 $69 +$8 (+13%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $101 $49 −$52 (-52%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $100 $38 −$62 (-62%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+84%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $16 $27 +$10 (+64%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $135 $17 −$117 (-87%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+53%)
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 51¢ 71¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $172 $12 −$160 (-93%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $100 $9 −$91 (-91%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $60 $3 −$57 (-95%)
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 37¢ 97¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+163%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 59¢ 93¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+58%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? No 42¢ 66¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+56%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 63¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -43%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $400 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,010 +$445 +44%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $469 −$310 -66%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $293 +$64 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $100 +$52 +52%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,814 +$402 +22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $407 −$30 -7%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 13 $20 −$5 -24%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $85 +$70 +83%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 11 $809 −$806 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $400 +$158 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $84 +$29 +35%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 08 $203 −$201 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $100 −$71 -71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $210 −$11 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $100 +$49 +49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $1 +$2 +156%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 24 $280 −$39 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $1,000 +$770 +77%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $257 −$12 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $143 −$120 -84%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $2,367 +$256 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $98 +$98 +100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $10 +$22 +222%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by bet May 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? May 22 $21 −$20 -95%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $11 +$6 +56%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $10 +$7 +72%
Gemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +39%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Green Party win at least 800 council seat elections in the 20 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Green Party win at least 900 council seat elections in the 20 May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 May 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2 May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 18 $20 −$9 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $200 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 18¢ $200 1h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 53¢ $400 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 69¢ $200 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $100 16h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 43h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $36 43h
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 47h
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 65¢ $105 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 62¢ $100 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $200 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $100 3d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $179 4d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,000 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 66¢ $100 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $169 5d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $178 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,030.40 · official $1,972.34 · 1839 history records