Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:14:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
35 0x355b…4fb7 sports 99 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$851 (+9%) realized +$695 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,097
7 days+$963
14 days+$1,053
30 days+$547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,062
other 2% −$124
politics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +20.7% +9.2% 40% 40% +59.0%
≤30d 59 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 34% +0.1%
≤90d 96 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 41% -1.4%
all 96 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 41% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 41% -1.4%
10% -18.4% 36% -10.8%
15% -26.3% 36% -19.5%
20% -33.5% 34% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$64 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$727
Realized+$695
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 50
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage72d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 55¢ 74¢ $400 $535 +$135 (+34%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ 14¢ $72 $90 +$18 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $75 −$37 -50%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne Jun 18 $106 −$2 -1%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $276 +$1,106 +401%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $400 +$46 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $10 +$1 +15%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $100 −$17 -17%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$7 -7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $106 −$105 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$28 +56%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 11 $50 −$29 -57%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $101 −$2 -2%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50 +$40 +79%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 10 $51 +$44 +86%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $48 −$48 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $4 +$19 +516%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $102 +$71 +70%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $99 +$3 +3%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $150 +$137 +91%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $100 +$61 +61%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $1 +$3 +288%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $105 −$104 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $88 −$87 -99%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 31 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $100 +$82 +82%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 30 $26 −$1 -5%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $25 +$3 +12%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $50 +$1 +2%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $94 −$93 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 4 Winner May 26 $131 −$33 -26%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 26 $126 +$133 +106%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner May 25 $101 +$80 +79%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner May 24 $101 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner May 24 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 24 $110 −$108 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $68 2m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $10 2m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $3 3m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $20 3m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $100 3m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $100 10m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $102 11m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 10¢ $29 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 10¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 10¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 14¢ $24 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 24¢ $51 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $100 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $446 22h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 54¢ $5 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $61 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 96¢ $39 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 86¢ $100 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 88¢ $100 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $11 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $89 23h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 50¢ $11 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $4 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ $2 24h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 39¢ $4 24h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $50 26h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $27 26h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $73 26h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 16¢ $100 26h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 19¢ $76 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $727.16 · official $727.16 (match) · 285 history records