Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:23:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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35 0x355a…c9ee sports 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$491 (+5%) realized +$496 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%111W / 96L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$347now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$72
14 days−$185
30 days+$329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$384
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -14.5% -22.7% 47% 47% -14.4%
≤30d 180 +0.6% -9.0% 55% 54% -5.8%
≤90d 207 -0.0% -9.5% 54% 53% -5.6%
all 207 -0.0% -9.5% 54% 53% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 53% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 51% -14.7%
15% -26.1% 49% -22.9%
20% -33.3% 45% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$35 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$347
Realized+$496
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses111 / 96
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions11
Markets (closed)207 / 218
History coverage34d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ 62¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+2%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 55¢ 52¢ $71 $68 −$3 (-4%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 61¢ 60¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds New York Mets 53¢ 52¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 61¢ 60¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 57¢ 56¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 65¢ 66¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+2%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 49¢ 48¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 41¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 50¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 60¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $21 +$18 +86%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $75 +$36 +48%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $62 +$48 +78%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $18 +$16 +89%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $37 +$29 +79%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $75 +$63 +84%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $66 +$46 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $67 +$67 +100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $14 +$20 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $23 −$23 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $53 +$49 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $42 +$20 +48%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $50 +$55 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $51 +$38 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $69 +$48 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3 +$2 +60%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $75 +$22 +29%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $50 +$44 +87%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $44 −$44 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $76 +$46 +60%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $76 +$60 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $21 +$16 +79%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $47 +$25 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $6 +$4 +78%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $32 +$29 +90%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $51 +$37 +71%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $48 −$48 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $45 +$32 +70%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $43 −$43 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $75 +$45 +60%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $56 −$56 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $151 −$76 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $4 20m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 60¢ $3 20m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $2 20m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 53¢ $35 47m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 54¢ $3 52m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $33 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $3 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $18 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $4 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $3 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $3 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $3 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $3 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 65¢ $3 5h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $3 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $3 5h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $20 5h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $4 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $3 5h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $2 5h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $2 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $3 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $3 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $3 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $3 6h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 49¢ $10 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $3 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $3 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $3 7h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $347.45 · official $347.46 (match) · 1417 history records