Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
35 0x355a…24c6 crypto 230 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%92W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$83
7 days−$126
14 days−$126
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$79
other 22% −$4
politics 8% +$55
sports 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -77.5% -79.6% 9% 7% -80.1%
≤30d 227 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 38% -12.4%
≤90d 227 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 38% -12.4%
all 227 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 38% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 38% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 37% -20.8%
15% -28.4% 35% -28.4%
20% -35.4% 35% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses92 / 135
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)227 / 230
History coverage19d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June 12 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 13 $11 −$11 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3h
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19 BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.72 · official $5.72 (match) · 658 history records