Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3557…f08c other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%25W / 28L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% $0
world 34% +$1
politics 10% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.1% 43% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.2% 46% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 20 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 53 +0.4% -9.2% 47% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses25 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage457d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $45 +$1 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $38 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $11 −$1 -6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $3 $0 +5%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Dec 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 335–349 times May 30–June 6? Jun 05 $11 $0 -2%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 04 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 03 $11 $0 +3%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 28 $21 $0 +2%
Will Federico Dimarco be named the Champions League Final man of the m May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 20 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 20 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 10 $1 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? May 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $14 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $45 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $41 16h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $21 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $19 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $25 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 25h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $18 25h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $10 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $12 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $22 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $9 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $4 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $10 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $45 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $27 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.43 · official $45.43 (match) · 159 history records