Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3557…e832
world · 50 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$24 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$73
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Open positions9
Markets (closed)41 / 50
History coverage35d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 9 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $10 $35 +$25 (+247%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 80¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 39¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-59%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? Yes 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Yes 78¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes 30¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Yes 43¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $0 $0 -97%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -63%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $1 $0 +16%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $14 +$2 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$2 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $3 −$2 -60%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? May 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $2 +$2 +154%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 19 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $10 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $1 $0 -56%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 18 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? May 15 $9 +$1 +16%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17? May 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $10 +$32 +311%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 15 $10 +$25 +246%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 15 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $1 +$3 +239%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 14 $20 $0 -1%
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on May 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 13 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 12 $4 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 11 $4 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 11 $10 −$2 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 09 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 49% +$49
politics 20% −$10
crypto 19% $0
other 11% −$15
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 9h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes $0 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $0 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 15h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $0 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $0 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -96.7% -97.0% 0% 0% -97.0%
≤30d 30 +21.7% +10.1% 50% 37% +12.5%
≤90d 41 +5.8% -4.3% 46% 29% +2.0%
all 41 +5.8% -4.3% 46% 29% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 29% +2.0%
10% -13.4% 20% -7.8%
15% -21.8% 20% -16.7%
20% -29.5% 17% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.21 · official $72.52 (match) · 206 history records