Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x3556…af4f sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$300 (+11%) realized +$170 · open +$130
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day36.0pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$506
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +57.4% +42.4% 83% 83% +7.5%
≤30d 12 +57.4% +42.4% 83% 83% +7.5%
≤90d 12 +57.4% +42.4% 83% 83% +7.5%
all 12 +57.4% +42.4% 83% 83% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.4% 83% +7.5%
10% ← realistic here +28.8% 83% -2.7%
15% +16.3% 83% -12.1%
20% +4.9% 67% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late +49% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$375 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized+$170
Unrealized+$130
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day36.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Tomas Barrios 13¢ 28¢ $174 $374 +$200 (+114%)
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Francesco Maestrelli 35¢ 25¢ $265 $191 −$74 (-28%)
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jack Pinnington Jones 15¢ 28¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 2 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov Jun 15 $119 +$48 +41%
Set 1 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov Jun 15 $188 +$124 +66%
Set 1 Winner: Basilashvili vs Altmaier Jun 15 $159 +$122 +77%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $434 −$330 -76%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Jun 15 $49 +$57 +117%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $195 +$188 +97%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $149 +$92 +62%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $82 +$58 +71%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $427 −$421 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $120 +$272 +226%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $139 +$120 +86%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $96 +$45 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 13¢ $61 21m
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 14¢ $117 27m
Set 2 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov SELL Jones 99¢ $167 30m
Set 2 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov BUY Jones 71¢ $41 1h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Francesco Maestrelli 36¢ $177 1h
Set 2 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov SELL Shapovalov 1¢ $0 1h
Set 2 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov BUY Jones 77¢ $56 1h
Set 2 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov BUY Jones 52¢ $18 1h
Set 2 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov BUY Jones 33¢ $2 1h
Set 2 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov BUY Shapovalov 75¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 15¢ $5 1h
Set 1 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov SELL Shapovalov 99¢ $312 1h
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Francesco Maestrelli 33¢ $93 1h
Set 1 Winner: Jones vs Shapovalov BUY Shapovalov 59¢ $188 1h
Set 1 Winner: Basilashvili vs Altmaier BUY Altmaier 56¢ $159 6h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 7¢ $42 6h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 21¢ $102 14h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 21¢ $185 14h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 99¢ $106 14h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 85¢ $383 14h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 45¢ $49 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 42¢ $195 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 81¢ $241 17h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $149 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL LYON 87¢ $140 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $82 18h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Max Schoenhaus 19¢ $92 18h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Max Schoenhaus 21¢ $105 18h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 54¢ $196 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $148 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.60 · official $573.73 (match) · 38 history records