Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
35 0x3555…3def world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$2
other 12% +$1
crypto 5% $0
politics 5% +$1
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.2% -4.8% 100% 0% -4.9%
≤30d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 21 +0.8% -8.8% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 37 +0.4% -9.1% 30% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 3% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage322d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $70 +$3 +4%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $47 +$3 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $68 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $94 −$4 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $96 −$3 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $157 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $75 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $44 +$2 +5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $72 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $72 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $73 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 31 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $8 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 23 $2 $0 -20%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 01 $1 $0 -7%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $7 $0 +7%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in August? Aug 06 $70 $0 +1%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 06 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $73 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $74 5h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $70 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 54¢ $50 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $47 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $31 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $61 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $5 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $3 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $34 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $42 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $26 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $40 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $27 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $26 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $42 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $15 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $82 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $82 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.06 · official $73.06 (match) · 136 history records