Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:35:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3551…a581 crypto 405 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d only
✗ bot/MM pace (639 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$130 (-1%) realized −$141 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%204W / 200L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day638.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$361
sports 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (639 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 404 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 43% -12.9%
≤30d 404 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 43% -12.9%
≤90d 404 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 43% -12.9%
all 404 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 43% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover638.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 43% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 33% -21.2%
15% -25.1% 24% -28.9%
20% -32.5% 18% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses204 / 200
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)404 / 405
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day638.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 51¢ 80¢ $20 $32 +$11 (+54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $95 +$26 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $24 +$14 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $32 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$25 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $75 +$84 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $80 +$27 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $40 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $53 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$42 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$22 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$4 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$6 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$5 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $53 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $53 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.20 · official $92.20 (match) · 3500 history records