Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:03:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x354f…ed37 crypto 675 markets active 3h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,096 (-14%) realized −$1,096 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%281W / 393L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$22
14 days−$69
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$1,286
sports 1% −$8
tech 0% −$19
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +6.7% -3.5% 27% 25% -25.5%
≤30d 261 +0.9% -8.7% 44% 42% -15.7%
≤90d 499 -8.5% -17.2% 43% 39% -22.5%
all 674 -10.5% -19.1% 42% 37% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 37% -26.5%
10% -26.8% 34% -33.5%
15% -33.9% 31% -39.9%
20% -40.4% 27% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$8 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,096
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses281 / 393
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)674 / 675
History coverage143d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 674 Trades
no open positions (324 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$27 +1290%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +116%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -25%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +313%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $8 −$3 -42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$3 -28%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +266%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 20¢ $2 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 9¢ $1 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Australia BUY 14¢ $10 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $20 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $14 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 45¢ $8 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 13¢ $2 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2058 history records