Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:46:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x354e…c0b2 crypto 443 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-6%) realized −$143 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%192W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$3
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$316
weather 39% +$165
other 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -16.9% -24.8% 33% 33% -27.4%
≤30d 93 -13.1% -21.4% 40% 39% -20.1%
≤90d 428 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 43% -16.8%
all 428 -1.9% -11.2% 45% 43% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 43% -16.8%
10% -19.7% 40% -24.7%
15% -27.5% 35% -32.0%
20% -34.6% 29% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$143
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses192 / 236
Open positions9
Markets (closed)428 / 443
History coverage59d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? No 24¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+316%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? No 47¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 71¢ 78¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 75¢ 74¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? No 66¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? No 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? No 41¢ 54¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +45%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 10 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -72%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$2 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 02 $2 +$3 +127%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 30? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $2 +$3 +128%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on May 29? May 30 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 29 $2 +$3 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +59%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 28 $2 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 28 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 27 $3 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24? May 26 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 25? May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 25 $3 −$2 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 24? May 25 $1 +$1 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 24 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 24 $3 −$1 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $2 24m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? SELL No 27¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY No 41¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? BUY No 47¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? BUY No 24¢ $1 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 12¢ $1 12h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 18¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.78 · official $14.78 (match) · 1164 history records