Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x354b…4744 sports 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,264 (-1%) realized +$16 · open −$1,280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%79W / 105L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$724per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1,983est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$944now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$3,232
other 8% −$7,782
crypto 0% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -36.2% -42.2% 26% 26% -64.8%
≤30d 161 -15.5% -23.5% 41% 41% -13.6%
≤90d 174 -11.3% -19.8% 43% 43% -11.7%
all 184 -9.4% -18.0% 43% 43% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 43% -11.7%
10% -25.9% 42% -20.2%
15% -33.0% 42% -27.9%
20% -39.6% 40% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$983) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$779 vs −$618 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$944
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1,280
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses79 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,983
Open positions7
Markets (closed)184 / 191
History coverage98d
Avg bet$724
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 49¢ 100¢ $300 $612 +$312 (+104%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 34¢ $300 $159 −$141 (-47%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $424 $101 −$323 (-76%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 Over 27¢ 6¢ $300 $66 −$234 (-78%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $300 $5 −$295 (-98%)
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 25 $102 −$51 -50%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $528 −$146 -28%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $594 −$579 -98%
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 23 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $308 −$300 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $304 −$300 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $304 −$300 -99%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $102 +$201 +197%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $453 −$446 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $404 −$397 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $75 +$149 +198%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $405 −$400 -99%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $36 +$77 +216%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $304 +$273 +90%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $806 +$566 +70%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $306 +$297 +97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $93 +$32 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $271 −$266 -98%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $712 −$699 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1,003 −$992 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $307 −$300 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $298 −$293 -98%
Qatar to score first vs. Canada? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 −$198 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $91 +$61 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $201 +$136 +67%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $152 +$181 +119%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $353 +$154 +44%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $595 +$354 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$347 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $203 −$198 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $304 −$300 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $307 −$300 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $177 +$118 +67%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 17 $697 −$697 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $675 −$675 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $432 19m
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 15¢ $51 21m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 SELL Over 41¢ $381 21m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $528 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $305 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $306 1h
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $307 4h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $303 4h
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $306 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $307 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $594 26h
Panama to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $308 27h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 58¢ $304 43h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $304 46h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $199 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $302 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $254 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 3d
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $75 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $304 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 3d
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 31¢ $36 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $304 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $806 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $303 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 50¢ $304 4d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $943.86 · official $946.34 (match) · 475 history records