Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3548…0ebb sports 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$225 (+2%) realized +$228 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%96W / 87L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$422
14 days+$237
30 days+$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$649
other 10% −$329
crypto 2% −$22
world 0% +$25
finance 0% −$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -17.8% -25.7% 33% 33% -31.6%
≤30d 88 +13.6% +2.8% 55% 55% -6.9%
≤90d 160 +9.3% -1.1% 57% 56% -6.8%
all 183 +5.6% -4.4% 52% 51% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 51% -7.0%
10% -13.6% 50% -15.9%
15% -21.9% 50% -24.0%
20% -29.6% 46% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$54 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$228
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses96 / 87
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions5
Markets (closed)183 / 192
History coverage264d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 48¢ $49 $43 −$6 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Switzerla Jun 19 $39 +$128 +328%
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. D Jun 17 $54 +$94 +174%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $301 −$298 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 16 $28 +$52 +188%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $145 −$143 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $140 +$118 +84%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $145 +$162 +112%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $158 +$154 +97%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $98 +$69 +70%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $132 +$123 +93%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $130 −$128 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 +$74 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $143 +$160 +112%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $45 −$45 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $54 +$72 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $57 +$55 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $119 +$84 +70%
Osters IF vs. IFK Varnamo: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $101 +$65 +65%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $106 +$66 +62%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $144 −$142 -98%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $102 −$100 -98%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $202 +$106 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $213 −$210 -99%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $203 +$169 +83%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $147 −$145 -98%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $61 −$60 -98%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both BUY 20¢ $48 27h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/ BUY 30¢ $102 32h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Scotland vs. Moro BUY 21¢ $66 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Switzerla BUY 23¢ $39 3d
o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $301 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $49 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2 BUY 13¢ $60 4d
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. D BUY 36¢ $54 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 4d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists SELL Yes 100¢ $79 4d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $28 5d
Désiré Doué: 1+ assists BUY Yes 25¢ $16 5d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $102 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 5d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 5d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $102 6d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $122 6d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $203 6d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 BUY Over 24¢ $18 6d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 6d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $145 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $258 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $308 6d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $98 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $140 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $145 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.34 · official $86.34 (match) · 342 history records