Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3547…496f sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$26 (-4%) realized −$22 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$79
other 42% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.9% -17.6% 69% 56% -22.6%
≤30d 16 -8.9% -17.6% 69% 56% -22.6%
≤90d 16 -8.9% -17.6% 69% 56% -22.6%
all 16 -8.9% -17.6% 69% 56% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 56% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 31% -30.0%
15% -32.7% 12% -36.8%
20% -39.3% 6% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$32 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Under 94¢ 84¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-11%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 96¢ 96¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 51¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 +$6 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 −$75 -75%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$34 -23%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$5 +13%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $25 +$6 +26%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 +$13 +21%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -87%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 96¢ $24 5m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 94¢ $37 25m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 29m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 23¢ $25 29m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 81¢ $25 38m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 86¢ $100 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 4h
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 93¢ $100 5h
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) BUY Fery 88¢ $40 7h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 78¢ $20 8h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 91¢ $30 12h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 79¢ $25 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $12 22h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $50 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 23h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $10 23h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 72¢ $15 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $10 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $5 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $20 25h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.45 · official $57.45 (match) · 35 history records