Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
35 0x3546…ef67 crypto 27 markets active 9d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (750 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$19,931 (+65%) realized +$19,931 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +141% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +78% what you keep after slip
Net edge+78%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$1,141per market
Trades / day750.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19,531
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (750 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+118.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 27 +141.2% +118.3% 70% 59% +53.9%
≤90d 27 +141.2% +118.3% 70% 59% +53.9%
all 27 +141.2% +118.3% 70% 59% +53.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover750.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +118.3% 59% +53.9%
10% +97.4% 48% +39.2%
15% ← realistic here +78.3% 41% +25.8%
20% +60.8% 41% +13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +141% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,490) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +93% → late +186% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
32.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,093 vs −$207 · ×5.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.69 per $1 lost it wins $16.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$19,931
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,141
Trades / day750.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $422 +$422 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $2,681 +$3,656 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $2,796 +$4,829 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1,433 −$29 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $625 +$1,416 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $1,490 +$158 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $4,024 +$405 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $518 −$85 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $353 +$40 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $983 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $203 +$49 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $601 +$140 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $1,356 +$40 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $465 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $1,051 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $71 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $576 −$194 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1,022 +$89 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3,047 +$4,571 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $1,325 −$920 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $2,734 +$2,892 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $563 +$57 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $229 +$145 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $109 +$97 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2,063 +$1,734 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $22 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $56 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $19 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 923 history records