Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:27:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3540…2a4c politics 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$1
other 21% +$1
world 16% $0
sports 15% $0
economics 11% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 0% -9.9%
all 34 -1.9% -11.3% 35% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage324d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $19 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $41 −$1 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $47 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $6 $0 +1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $122K August 4–10? Aug 11 $1 $0 -15%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 10 $19 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Israel airdrop aid into Gaza? Aug 10 $16 $0 +1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Aug 07 $52 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Aug 07 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 06 $1 $0 -39%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 06 $98 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Aug 05 $2 $0 -14%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $10 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $27 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $37 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 25h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $5 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $13 33h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $6 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $12 36h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $41 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 30d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $6 311d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 316d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 316d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 316d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $55 316d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 316d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 316d
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $6 316d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $46 316d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $9 316d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $55 317d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $55 317d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 317d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 129 history records