Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
35 0x353f…2dbe sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$15
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$565now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$185
14 days+$255
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$87
sports 37% +$167
politics 4% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +91.7% +73.4% 88% 88% +23.7%
≤30d 12 +65.9% +50.1% 83% 83% +22.7%
≤90d 31 +35.4% +22.5% 58% 58% -3.2%
all 31 +35.4% +22.5% 58% 58% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.5% 58% -3.2%
10% +10.8% 58% -12.4%
15% +0.1% 52% -20.9%
20% -9.7% 32% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +47% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$44 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$565
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 38
History coverage108d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $211 +$11 (+6%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $139 −$11 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $161 +$44 +27%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $20 +$30 +149%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $50 +$21 +42%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $71 +$31 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$26 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $26 +$62 +244%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 Jun 21 $26 +$71 +276%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $91 +$83 +91%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $40 +$12 +31%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $40 +$14 +36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona? Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 FC Barcelona? Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $100 +$36 +36%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? Apr 14 $5 +$44 +872%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 14 $20 +$21 +104%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $100 +$55 +56%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 11 $50 +$36 +73%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 2 FC Bayern München? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 1 Club Atlético de Madrid? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs BIG (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffs Apr 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $100 −$74 -74%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Apr 09 $40 +$25 +64%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $100 +$41 +41%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 08 $360 $0 -0%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 07 $200 +$71 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $161 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in BUY $15 16h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams BUY 39¢ $20 16h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $41 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $29 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 28¢ $26 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 20 BUY 26¢ $26 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 46¢ $41 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $51 7d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AN BUY 13¢ $10 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $40 11d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $40 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $41 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 11d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 11d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $136 73d
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? SELL Yes 100¢ $49 73d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 73d
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $100 73d
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 FC Barcelona? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 73d
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 3 FC Barcelona? BUY Yes $10 73d
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 2 FC Barcelona? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 73d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $100 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $564.68 · official $579.65 · 150 history records