Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
35 0x353f…a9d9 world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$80 (+2%) realized +$91 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%32W / 42L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$487now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$421
other 19% −$190
crypto 9% −$85
politics 6% −$78
sports 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +19.5% +8.1% 33% 33% -14.5%
≤30d 9 -10.6% -19.1% 44% 33% -14.7%
≤90d 59 -23.8% -31.1% 37% 24% -9.3%
all 74 -7.9% -16.7% 43% 32% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 32% -7.0%
10% -24.7% 30% -15.9%
15% -31.9% 28% -24.0%
20% -38.6% 24% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$22 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$487
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses32 / 42
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)74 / 82
History coverage117d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $230 $218 −$12 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $32 $41 +$9 (+28%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026? Yes 41¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? No 30¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Yes 40¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Yes 21¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Yes 31¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $30 +$57 +191%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 12 $113 −$37 -33%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $39 −$31 -79%
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 23 $10 +$5 +45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 16 $170 +$37 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $40 −$17 -42%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $10 +$38 +373%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $100 −$87 -87%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $440 +$37 +8%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $100 −$22 -22%
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 20 $150 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 20 $205 +$4 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $50 +$8 +15%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Apr 20 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 19 $25 +$22 +89%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? Apr 18 $80 +$38 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $50 +$26 +52%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $65 +$6 +8%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $16 −$4 -22%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Apr 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 15 $216 +$172 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 14 $20 −$12 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $87 4h
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $236 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $64 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 12d
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 16d
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? BUY No 30¢ $10 21d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $100 22d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $20 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 22d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27d
Will Italy replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $22 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 19¢ $23 29d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their SELL Yes 93¢ $49 31d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o SELL Yes $13 31d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their BUY Yes 19¢ $10 32d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $15 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 50¢ $30 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $486.53 · official $486.53 (match) · 274 history records