Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:07:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x353c…1b20 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1
politics 27% $0
sports 7% $0
economics 6% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
other 4% −$3
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 0% -9.2%
all 32 -3.6% -12.7% 34% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage326d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $32 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $61 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Aug 10 $2 −$2 -66%
Will Thailand capture Preah Vihear temple by July 31? Aug 10 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $62 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 31 $62 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before August? Jul 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Jul 30 $58 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $65 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $66 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $58 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 28 $59 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 28 $7 $0 +0%
Israel military action against Iran in July? Jul 28 $66 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $32 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $23 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $23 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $32 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 75¢ $32 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 46h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $23 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $29 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $21 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $17 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $32 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $32 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $32 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $29 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $24 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $4 10d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $11 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $17 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $28 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records