Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x353c…7848 world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%16W / 31L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% $0
other 21% −$2
politics 14% $0
culture 5% +$1
economics 4% +$3
crypto 4% +$2
finance 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.3% -11.6% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 19 +0.4% -9.1% 37% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 19 +0.4% -9.1% 37% 5% -9.6%
all 47 +0.1% -9.4% 34% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses16 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage309d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$1 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $32 −$2 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $8 +$1 +17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $29 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $29 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 09 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 08 $1 $0 -21%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $3 +$2 +72%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 330–344 times August 22–August 29? Aug 25 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 25 $25 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in August? Aug 25 $19 +$2 +10%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? Aug 24 $21 $0 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Aug 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 23 $22 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 22 $35 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 20 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 20 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $5 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $26 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $30 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $30 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $6 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $23 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $20 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $8 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $17 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $25 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $0 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $24 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $4 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 50¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $29 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $30 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $29 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $30 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 169 history records