Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

35 0x353b…346a world 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 64d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$1 (+7%) realized +$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%4W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days+$6

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+9.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	4	+82.0%	+64.7%	100%	100%	+66.8%
≤90d	6	+21.3%	+9.8%	67%	67%	-1.6%
all	6	+21.3%	+9.8%	67%	67%	-1.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+9.8%	67%	-1.6%
10%	-0.7%	67%	-11.0%
15%	-10.3%	67%	-19.6%
20%	-19.1%	67%	-27.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 63% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +21% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.21 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses4 / 2

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)6 / 7

History coverage64d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	No	43¢	42¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?	Jun 02	$2	+$1	+67%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 01	$2	+$1	+67%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Jun 01	$2	+$1	+67%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Jun 01	$2	+$3	+127%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	May 11	$2	−$2	-97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	Apr 21	$3	−$3	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	BUY No	43¢	$2	5d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30?	BUY Yes	60¢	$2	14d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	BUY No	59¢	$2	29d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	47¢	$2	36d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra	BUY Yes	59¢	$3	56d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	BUY No	44¢	$2	69d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY No	60¢	$2	69d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.12 · official $5.12 (match) · 10 history records