Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:02:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
35 0x3539…7e04 other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate5%5W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$12
politics 29% −$8
sports 8% −$43
crypto 4% −$1
tech 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 84 +1.1% -8.6% 2% 2% -9.5%
all 103 -3.4% -12.6% 5% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 4% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 4% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 3% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×10.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses5 / 98
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage119d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $414 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $423 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $343 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $387 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $191 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $219 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $214 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $192 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $382 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $229 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $214 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $203 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $217 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 29 $182 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 22 $232 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $172 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $192 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $187 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $385 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $202 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $155 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $199 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $184 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $192 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $189 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $208 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $209 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $164 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $474 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $374 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $212 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $224 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 21h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $32 21h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 3d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 13d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 15d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $206 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $206 33d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $205 33d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $205 41d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 42d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 48d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $198 48d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $198 49d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $172 49d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $172 50d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 50d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $217 50d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $215 51d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $215 51d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $162 51d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $162 51d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $191 51d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $191 52d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $169 52d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $169 52d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $219 52d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $219 53d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $187 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.99 · official $91.99 (match) · 319 history records