Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3538…2c89 crypto 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,147 (+5%) realized +$737 · open +$1,410
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate69%126W / 56L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$9,474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$139
14 days+$134
30 days+$330
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% +$2,376
other 5% +$31
sports 3% −$20
crypto 3% −$260
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.7% +1.9% 84% 63% +1.7%
≤30d 54 -2.7% -12.0% 72% 41% -7.1%
≤90d 182 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 49% -7.4%
all 182 -3.6% -12.8% 69% 49% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 49% -7.4%
10% -21.1% 33% -16.2%
15% -28.8% 22% -24.3%
20% -35.7% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$9,474
Realized+$737
Unrealized+$1,410
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses126 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage56d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 94¢ $8,000 $9,392 +$1,392 (+17%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 82¢ $64 $82 +$18 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$8 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $220 +$11 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $226 +$27 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$6 +31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $120 +$11 +9%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$4 +21%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $100 +$24 +24%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -40%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$29 +57%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 14 $1,000 +$61 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $102 +$22 +21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $1,200 +$30 +2%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $25 −$25 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 03 $20 +$1 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $20 +$3 +13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $7,862 +$293 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $500 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $25 +$4 +16%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $53 −$37 -69%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 31 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 30 $50 +$2 +4%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 29 $5 +$1 +17%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 29 $50 +$3 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 28 $50 +$2 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 28 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 26 $25 −$25 -99%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 86¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $43 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $231 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 96¢ $200 32h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 86¢ $20 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $253 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $226 34h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 93¢ $100 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 76¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $131 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $120 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $124 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 82¢ $20 3d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 4d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 91¢ $20 4d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $18 4d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $40 4d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 64¢ $6 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 5d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,473.66 · official $9,473.66 (match) · 378 history records