Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3537…3b51 sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$448 (-9%) realized −$448 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%30W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$501
14 days−$501
30 days−$501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$611
other 9% +$138
world 1% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -19.2%
≤30d 71 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -19.2%
≤90d 71 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -19.2%
all 71 -9.4% -18.0% 42% 42% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 42% -19.2%
10% -25.9% 39% -26.9%
15% -33.0% 38% -34.0%
20% -39.6% 30% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$53 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$448
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses30 / 41
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage7d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 +$42 +90%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $36 +$20 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $43 +$21 +48%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $44 +$26 +60%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $100 +$45 +45%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$2 -6%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $19 +$26 +134%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $36 −$10 -28%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $37 +$28 +76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$14 -47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $57 +$32 +57%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $53 −$52 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $126 −$125 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $231 −$126 -54%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $121 −$21 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 −$45 -90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $342 +$93 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$12 +40%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $187 +$243 +130%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $208 −$206 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$101 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 −$31 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $47 +$31 +67%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$29 -82%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $52 +$46 +89%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -98%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $30 +$30 +102%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$1 -4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $36 −$3 -8%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $44 +$46 +105%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$16 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $29 +$71 +244%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $30 +$21 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$41 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $56 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $46 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 16h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $145 16h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 67¢ $29 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 53¢ $28 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 54¢ $15 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $30 17h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $46 17h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $100 25h
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $19 26h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 63¢ $32 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 30¢ $10 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World SELL InterActive Philippines 72¢ $53 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 34¢ $25 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $37 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $16 37h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $30 38h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 68¢ $29 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $10 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $51 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $90 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 63¢ $57 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $30 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $29 40h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $20 41h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $10 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.50 · official $54.50 (match) · 144 history records