Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:51:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
35 0x3536…3b64 world 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate46%45W / 53L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$16
sports 25% $0
other 22% +$3
economics 9% −$1
politics 8% −$7
crypto 0% +$1
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 29 +0.3% -9.2% 34% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 46 -1.7% -11.1% 39% 0% -9.4%
all 98 -1.6% -11.0% 46% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 4% -9.4%
10% -19.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 1% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses45 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage492d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $110 $111 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 64¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 36¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $128 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $138 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $119 +$2 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $229 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $106 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $173 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $109 −$2 -2%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $109 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $148 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $120 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $209 +$1 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $109 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $314 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $120 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $130 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $224 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $152 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $119 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $121 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $121 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $115 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $205 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $100 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $96 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $95 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $81 +$6 +8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2,165 −$2 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $1,034 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $942 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $948 −$9 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 05 $1 +$1 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $110 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $121 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $121 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 24h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 30h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 37h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 37h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $43 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $52 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $95 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $63 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $110 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $121 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $121 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $7 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $70 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $68 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $84 7d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $25 7d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $108 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $106 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.59 · official $109.65 · 338 history records