Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:06:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
35 0x3535…5ec6 sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,757 (+32%) realized +$3,226 · open −$469
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$85
14 days+$2,141
30 days+$2,672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$2,894
world 33% −$153
crypto 28% −$322
tech 3% −$28
culture 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -66.2% -69.4% 20% 0% -21.9%
≤30d 21 +25.4% +13.5% 52% 38% +40.9%
≤90d 21 +25.4% +13.5% 52% 38% +40.9%
all 39 +13.2% +2.5% 49% 41% +33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 41% +33.2%
10% -7.4% 33% +20.5%
15% -16.3% 31% +8.8%
20% -24.5% 28% -1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$195 vs −$44 · ×4.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.19 per $1 lost it wins $4.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$3,226
Unrealized−$469
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage136d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? No 17¢ 23¢ $114 $152 +$38 (+34%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? No 11¢ $264 $27 −$237 (-90%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 14¢ $278 $23 −$255 (-92%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 39¢ 21¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-46%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Jun 27 $168 −$97 -58%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$22 -81%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $428 +$34 +8%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $808 +$44 +6%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $98 +$475 +484%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $183 −$181 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $90 +$22 +25%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $885 +$48 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $156 −$4 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $60 −$40 -65%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$1 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 16 $39 +$57 +145%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $39 +$8 +20%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $172 +$172 +100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $755 +$1,635 +216%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $188 −$184 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $528 +$544 +103%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $129 +$171 +132%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $113 −$113 -100%
Warriors vs. Knicks Mar 16 $40 −$30 -75%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Jazz vs. Wizards Mar 07 $120 +$46 +38%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 07 $12 +$38 +317%
Pelicans vs. Kings Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 06 $39 −$1 -3%
Lakers vs. Suns Feb 27 $46 +$35 +76%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Feb 25 $74 +$106 +144%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner Feb 25 $33 −$22 -66%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Feb 25 $61 +$39 +64%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 25 $23 +$4 +17%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $265 +$59 +22%
Will "I Can Only Imagine 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m Feb 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Nets vs. Thunder Feb 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 20 $116 +$172 +149%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 19 $201 −$85 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 23¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 23¢ $16 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? SELL Yes $71 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $34 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 11¢ $117 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 16¢ $10 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY No 16¢ $79 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No $90 21h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 12¢ $1 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 13¢ $133 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 12¢ $42 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 53¢ $2,038 30h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $291 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 39¢ $99 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,293 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 36h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $85 36h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $0 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $539 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $580 7d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $84 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.36 · official $211.70 · 188 history records