Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:34:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3535…a775
sports · 20 markets active 1d ago
3.5score
+$147,434 +28%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$147,434 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 0 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76,830
7 days+$74,168
14 days+$26,991
30 days+$147,552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Over 51¢ $25,061 $0 −$25,061 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 46¢ $28,704 $0 −$28,704 (-100%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Over 52¢ $5,894 $0 −$5,894 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Over 48¢ $23,040 $0 −$23,040 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $29,649 −$28,714 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $25,809 −$25,069 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 Jun 11 $23,770 −$23,047 -97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $59,384 +$75,692 +128%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $5,978 −$5,894 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $24,745 +$26,629 +108%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $51,596 +$54,571 +106%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 03 $13,653 −$13,653 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 03 $19,612 −$19,612 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 03 $38,978 −$38,978 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 03 $49,477 −$48,745 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 31 $7,918 +$8,521 +108%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $43,849 +$42,553 +97%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 May 30 $19,059 +$22,737 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 29 $24,375 +$25,626 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $21,143 +$22,024 +104%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $32,086 +$36,486 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $19,853 +$18,186 +92%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $19,567 +$18,238 +93%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $118 −$118 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$147,434
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $455 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $29,649 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 50¢ $361 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25,809 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 SELL Over 47¢ $352 35h
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 48¢ $23,770 35h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $3 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $7 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5,948 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 52¢ $4 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 91¢ $9,101 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 92¢ $9,211 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 89¢ $8,871 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 89¢ $8,890 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 83¢ $8,213 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Colorado Rockies 40¢ $989 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $59,384 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 46¢ $166 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 46¢ $372 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $23,335 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $1,409 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 47¢ $11,034 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 48¢ $39,369 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1,193 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 47¢ $732 9d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $75 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -8.5% -17.2% 43% 43% +21.2%
≤30d 19 +19.7% +8.3% 58% 58% +15.8%
≤90d 20 +13.7% +2.9% 55% 55% +15.7%
all 20 +13.7% +2.9% 55% 55% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.9% 55% +15.7%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 55% +4.7%
15% -16.0% 55% -5.4%
20% -24.2% 55% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records