Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3533…17c8 crypto 232 markets active 11h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$502 (-7%) realized −$502 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%150W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$88
14 days−$113
30 days−$589
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$610
sports 12% −$65
politics 1% −$3
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -25.7% -32.8% 45% 30% -21.8%
≤30d 144 -18.5% -26.3% 57% 34% -24.6%
≤90d 232 -11.2% -19.7% 65% 41% -18.0%
all 232 -11.2% -19.7% 65% 41% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 41% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 23% -25.9%
15% -34.4% 12% -33.0%
20% -40.8% 7% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$19 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$502
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses150 / 82
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage50d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $22 +$17 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$20 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $38 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $48 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $87 −$69 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $99 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $111 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $54 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$24 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $63 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$2 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $117 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $16 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $41 −$12 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $23 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$3 +26%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $87 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 04 $13 −$10 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 04 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 04 $28 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 04 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 04 $56 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 04 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 04 $13 +$1 +8%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $39 +$4 +10%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $26 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 03 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 03 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 03 $20 −$2 -10%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $119 −$40 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 02 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 30 $13 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 30 $61 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 30 $37 −$1 -3%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 30 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 29 $2 $0 +4%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Colorado Eagles May 29 $80 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $17 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $13 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1690 history records