Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:37:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x352d…ba8a sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$74 (-5%) realized −$66 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$300
30 days+$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$75
world 9% −$14
crypto 3% $0
other 3% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +12.5% +1.8% 33% 33% +25.1%
≤90d 16 -6.5% -15.4% 69% 31% -14.7%
all 21 -8.1% -16.9% 71% 29% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 29% -15.6%
10% -24.8% 24% -23.7%
15% -32.1% 10% -31.0%
20% -38.7% 10% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$86 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage178d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 35¢ 34¢ $184 $176 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $126 +$300 +238%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 08 $90 −$89 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $94 −$93 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $135 +$44 +32%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge May 19 $96 +$60 +62%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 13 $182 −$178 -98%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? May 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 13 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 13 $13 +$1 +5%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 13 $14 $0 +3%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? May 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, May 13 $52 +$2 +4%
Thunder vs. Suns May 13 $92 +$24 +26%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $63 −$62 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 27 $73 −$72 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 03 $15 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $13 +$4 +33%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jan 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $187 1h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 29¢ $126 9d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 63¢ $90 18d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 63¢ $94 25d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 75¢ $135 32d
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge BUY BNK FearX Youth 61¢ $96 38d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 36¢ $182 44d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 63¢ $63 50d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $73 60d
Thunder vs. Suns BUY Thunder 79¢ $92 62d
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, BUY No 96¢ $52 76d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 91¢ $10 92d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 101d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 97¢ $14 109d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 87¢ $11 111d
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $13 122d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 99¢ $20 133d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 96¢ $22 133d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 145d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $13 153d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 99¢ $22 162d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $19 168d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 177d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.88 · official $175.88 (match) · 38 history records