Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x352d…cb9e crypto 286 markets active 2h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9,786 (+2%) realized +$9,300 · open +$486
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate87%246W / 37L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$1,550per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$8,463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$885
7 days+$3,135
14 days+$4,268
30 days+$6,145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$4,242
other 17% +$3,422
sports 12% +$1,369
tech 1% +$411
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 7% -6.8%
≤30d 81 +2.9% -6.9% 99% 4% -7.0%
≤90d 192 +1.8% -7.9% 96% 4% -7.6%
all 283 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 11% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 11% -7.7%
10% -19.2% 9% -16.5%
15% -27.0% 7% -24.6%
20% -34.2% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$2,273) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$38 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×7.45 per $1 lost it wins $7.45
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$8,463
Realized+$9,300
Unrealized+$486
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses246 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)283 / 286
History coverage211d
Avg bet$1,550
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $4,239 $4,688 +$449 (+11%)
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Czechia 94¢ 94¢ $3,018 $3,002 −$16 (-1%)
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $720 $773 +$53 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $3,357 +$83 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,445 +$29 +2%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,149 +$42 +2%
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,678 +$10 +1%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $6,015 +$156 +3%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,632 +$57 +4%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,772 +$228 +4%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,910 +$194 +7%
Spread: Iraq (-1.5) Jun 17 $4,216 +$86 +2%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 16 $7,873 +$244 +3%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $7,592 +$284 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7,407 +$182 +2%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $7,298 +$111 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6,846 +$437 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,825 +$118 +3%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $2,773 +$142 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,034 +$66 +6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6,475 +$59 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6,426 +$50 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2,476 +$278 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $3,542 +$128 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $168 +$22 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,398 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $1,546 +$17 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 11? Jun 12 $2,607 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,917 +$13 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $3,145 +$82 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $894 +$28 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $4,579 +$33 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $327 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,673 +$128 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $5,610 +$57 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4,893 +$258 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $4,090 +$29 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5,217 +$101 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 on June 7? Jun 08 $901 +$9 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $1,211 +$26 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $3,080 +$79 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $385 +$34 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,739 +$78 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,264 +$30 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $483 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,128 +$35 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $247 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,964 +$195 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 3? Jun 04 $2,959 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $3,518 +$63 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 94¢ $3,024 1h
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $726 3h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $2,991 10h
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) BUY Colombia 98¢ $366 10h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $1,328 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $4 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $98 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $15 18h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $17 18h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $30 18h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $2,496 19h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,279 19h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 70¢ $444 21h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $417 24h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $306 25h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $88 25h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $258 25h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $245 26h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $31 26h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $306 26h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $245 26h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $155 27h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY Portugal 98¢ $98 27h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 97¢ $6,015 32h
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Austria 99¢ $1,408 32h
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) BUY Austria 99¢ $270 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 96¢ $1,632 33h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 96¢ $106 34h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 96¢ $221 34h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Argentina 96¢ $154 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,463.01 · official $8,463.01 (match) · 1164 history records