Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
35 0x352b…afeb crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$250 (+50%) realized +$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$8
sports 28% +$254
other 28% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 53% 40% +40.5%
≤30d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 53% 40% +40.5%
≤90d 15 +22.1% +10.5% 53% 40% +40.5%
all 15 +22.1% +10.5% 53% 40% +40.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.5% 40% +40.5%
10% -0.1% 40% +27.0%
15% -9.7% 40% +14.8%
20% -18.6% 33% +3.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$16 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$14 +262%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $101 +$7 +7%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$16 +156%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $112 +$258 +229%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 22h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $370 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $102 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 24¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records