Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3529…2cbe weather 321 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$55 (-1%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate91%302W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day69.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$95
14 days−$88
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (70 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -18.5% -26.2% 80% 0% -14.0%
≤30d 331 -5.0% -14.1% 91% 1% -10.3%
≤90d 331 -5.0% -14.1% 91% 1% -10.3%
all 331 -5.0% -14.1% 91% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 1% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses302 / 29
Open positions5
Markets (closed)331 / 321
History coverage23d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day69.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 331 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on June 4? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on June 9? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 16 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on June 16? Jun 16 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 15 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $74 −$74 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $13 45m
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $8 48m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 98¢ $54 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $23 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $18 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $18 8h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $21 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $8 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $11 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.54 · official $125.55 (match) · 1584 history records