Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:03:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x3528…3737 crypto 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate63%48W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$14
14 days+$22
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$27
other 29% +$4
tech 16% +$18
world 2% −$7
sports 1% −$3
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +39.8% +26.5% 100% 100% +23.8%
≤30d 6 +22.6% +10.9% 83% 83% +14.4%
≤90d 7 +24.8% +12.9% 86% 86% +16.0%
all 76 -9.4% -18.0% 63% 45% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 45% -13.1%
10% -25.9% 32% -21.4%
15% -33.1% 20% -29.0%
20% -39.6% 13% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% too few recent
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses48 / 28
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage218d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 93¢ 94¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 71¢ 74¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 27 $17 +$11 +66%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $21 +$3 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $36 +$8 +21%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$3 +22%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $18 +$7 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 18? Jan 19 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 17 $1 $0 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 10 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down on January 10? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 10 $1 $0 -20%
XRP Up or Down on January 10? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 10? Jan 10 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down on January 9? Jan 10 $3 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 9? Jan 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $2 +$2 +68%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 08 $1 $0 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 08 $1 +$2 +147%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 08 $1 +$1 +64%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $1 $0 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $1 +$1 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $1 $0 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $1 +$1 +71%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 06 $1 +$1 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 06 $3 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 05 $1 $0 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 04 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 3? Jan 03 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $2 $0 +16%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 03 $2 $0 +3%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Dec 30 $1 $0 +13%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on December 18? Dec 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on December 18? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 17 $1 $0 +17%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 15 $4 $0 +9%
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22? Dec 12 $10 −$6 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 12? Dec 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 11? Dec 12 $2 +$2 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 71¢ $11 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 93¢ $28 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 64¢ $12 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 89¢ $11 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $23 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 88¢ $5 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 52¢ $5 7d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 86¢ $5 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 10d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 17d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 17d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 17d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 18d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 18d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $6 19d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 22d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 28d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 31d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $4 32d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 35d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 38d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 38d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 39d
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $3 39d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 39d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 39d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 39d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.07 · official $39.07 (match) · 223 history records