Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3527…4cc5 crypto 80 markets active 8h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$167 (+10%) realized +$168 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$217
other 7% +$19
sports 2% +$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +85.8% +68.1% 42% 37% -6.8%
≤30d 79 +22.4% +10.8% 34% 30% -24.8%
≤90d 79 +22.4% +10.8% 34% 30% -24.8%
all 79 +22.4% +10.8% 34% 30% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.8% 30% -24.8%
10% ← realistic here +0.2% 29% -32.0%
15% -9.5% 28% -38.6%
20% -18.4% 22% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$168
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage12d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$34 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $109 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $222 +$108 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $161 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$28 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$15 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$36 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$7 +45%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$19 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -47%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 +$39 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$134 +477%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 +$13 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$31 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 04 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 04 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 04 $22 −$21 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $42 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $44 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $38 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $14 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $69 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $82 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $113 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $32 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.92 · official $26.92 (match) · 405 history records