Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3525…00ec other 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$187 (-63%) realized −$197 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$204
14 days−$206
30 days−$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$177
crypto 5% −$2
politics 4% −$4
culture 4% −$9
weather 2% −$4
sports 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -72.8% -75.4% 12% 0% -88.3%
≤30d 56 -48.0% -52.9% 18% 7% -81.3%
≤90d 78 -26.2% -33.2% 28% 15% -71.2%
all 78 -26.2% -33.2% 28% 15% -71.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 15% -71.2%
10% -39.6% 12% -74.0%
15% -45.4% 5% -76.5%
20% -50.8% 5% -78.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -68% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$197
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 56
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)78 / 85
History coverage49d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $19 −$14 -72%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 13 $8 −$3 -35%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 13 $13 −$9 -70%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 5? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 780-799 tweets in May 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $1 $0 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 30 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $1 −$1 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 +$5 +482%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 22 $1 $0 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 3h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 18h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 18h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 22h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 26h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 26h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 27¢ $5 27h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 27h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 26¢ $8 37h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 37h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 39h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 40¢ $8 40h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 44h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 44h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 44h
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 45h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 46h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 46h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.64 · official $5.65 (match) · 356 history records