Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x3524…7ef3
sports · 208 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$17 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses22 / 185
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)207 / 208
History coverage158d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 207 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 97¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $86 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $62 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $64 $0 +0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $198 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $113 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $27 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 07 $167 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 01 $99 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 31 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 29 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 29 $123 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $115 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $109 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $35 $0 -1%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 25 $35 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $216 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 23 $31 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 21 $31 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 20 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 29% −$4
other 23% −$7
politics 19% −$4
crypto 11% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 5% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $10 1h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 13d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $29 25d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $29 25d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $30 59d
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $30 60d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 93¢ $32 60d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 93¢ $32 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 60d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $29 60d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $24 60d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $24 60d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $29 60d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $29 61d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $26 61d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $26 61d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $30 61d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $30 61d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $25 61d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 61d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 61d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $33 62d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $27 62d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $27 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $25 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $25 62d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $28 62d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $28 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 61 -0.2% -9.7% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 207 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.83 · official $28.83 (match) · 797 history records