Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:50:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3522…31a8 sports 268 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$142 (-3%) realized −$146 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%121W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$76
14 days−$39
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$206
other 37% +$27
world 1% −$8
politics 0% +$4
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +3.5% -6.3% 37% 37% -22.6%
≤30d 81 -1.0% -10.4% 46% 42% -15.6%
≤90d 261 -7.4% -16.3% 46% 44% -12.8%
all 261 -7.4% -16.3% 46% 44% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 44% -12.8%
10% -24.3% 39% -21.1%
15% -31.6% 35% -28.7%
20% -38.3% 32% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$128
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses121 / 140
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions7
Markets (closed)261 / 268
History coverage76d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ 69¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+70%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 105 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$15 +291%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$15 +297%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $142 +$86 +61%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $101 −$87 -86%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $6 +$14 +232%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$1 -23%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $61 −$60 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $25 +$30 +120%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +43%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $15 $0 +3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $15 +$12 +79%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $35 +$23 +65%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $10 +$7 +69%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $51 +$40 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $10 +$13 +129%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $10 $0 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $202 −$200 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $50 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 82¢ $20 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes $0 10h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 56¢ $51 10h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $51 10h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 10h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 10h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies SELL Boston Red Sox $14 34h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $40 34h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $101 40h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $101 40h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 40h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $20 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $61 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 37¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $10 6d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $10 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 61¢ $10 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $10 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $10 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $10 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.50 · official $128.51 (match) · 496 history records