Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x351d…8574 sports 111 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,786 (+11%) realized +$1,517 · open +$269
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate28%30W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,118
7 days−$304
14 days+$1,285
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$273
crypto 4% +$109
other 1% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -36.2% -42.3% 22% 20% -14.4%
≤30d 109 -21.1% -28.6% 28% 27% -9.4%
≤90d 109 -21.1% -28.6% 28% 27% -9.4%
all 109 -21.1% -28.6% 28% 27% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 27% -9.4%
10% -35.5% 25% -18.0%
15% -41.7% 25% -25.9%
20% -47.4% 22% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$304 vs −$115 · ×2.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$1,517
Unrealized+$269
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses30 / 79
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage24d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 78¢ $196 $526 +$331 (+169%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies West Indies 14¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $124 −$41 -33%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $232 +$9 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $134 −$132 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 24 $38 −$38 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $22 −$21 -94%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $139 −$139 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $65 −$65 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $128 −$127 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $161 −$161 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $60 −$59 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $76 −$75 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $133 −$132 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $117 −$115 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $87 −$45 -52%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $102 +$219 +216%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $40 −$1 -3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $87 −$87 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $268 +$907 +338%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $180 +$294 +163%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $156 +$443 +284%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $124 +$153 +123%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $111 −$111 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 +$77 +152%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $108 +$292 +270%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $196 −$196 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $383 −$186 -49%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $190 −$190 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 +$167 +165%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $246 +$404 +164%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $283 −$133 -47%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $96 −$96 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $128 −$128 -100%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $321 +$354 +110%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $150 −$147 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 11¢ $83 6m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 16¢ $124 7m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 19m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $78 20m
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $116 20m
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $241 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $150 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $134 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 5¢ $0 3h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 5¢ $37 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $74 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 19¢ $11 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 11¢ $82 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 12¢ $24 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 15¢ $38 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 7h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $105 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $4 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $38 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $27 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $0 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $90 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $4 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $6 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $37 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $11 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $0 20h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 18¢ $7 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 18¢ $13 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.72 · official $506.47 · 464 history records