Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x351b…fea7 crypto 1014 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$649 (-2%) realized −$649 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate82%835W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$71
14 days−$179
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$608
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 221 -2.6% -11.9% 87% 10% -14.5%
≤30d 243 -4.5% -13.6% 85% 10% -20.2%
≤90d 1014 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 19% -11.2%
all 1014 -4.2% -13.3% 82% 19% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 19% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 7% -19.7%
15% -29.2% 4% -27.4%
20% -36.1% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$649
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses835 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1014 / 1014
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1014 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records