Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x351a…f836
sports · 1146 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$8 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$60 · open −$56
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$483
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses589 / 531
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions35
Markets (closed)1120 / 1146
History coverage70d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day41.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 35 History 1120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$197
7 days−$96
14 days+$27
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 61¢ 56¢ $43 $40 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 44¢ 64¢ $26 $38 +$12 (+44%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 92¢ $20 $37 +$17 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $28 $34 +$5 (+18%)
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 73¢ 92¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+26%)
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Yes 53¢ 44¢ $32 $27 −$5 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 81¢ 86¢ $24 $26 +$1 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 80¢ $23 $24 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Yes 35¢ 45¢ $16 $20 +$5 (+29%)
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms? No 88¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$2 (+9%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+24%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-9%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 64¢ 82¢ $13 $16 +$4 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 13? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 31¢ 18¢ $22 $12 −$9 (-44%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 74¢ 52¢ $15 $10 −$4 (-30%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $7 $10 +$2 (+34%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 61¢ 71¢ $8 $10 +$1 (+17%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Team WE 20¢ 43¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+115%)
Will the Republican Party win the LA-06 House seat? Yes 67¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$2 (+26%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 46¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+36%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$13 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $56 −$25 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $36 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$25 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$20 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$34 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $51 −$14 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $52 −$35 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $108 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $212 +$23 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $103 −$38 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$22 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $23 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $102 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$28 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $32 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $37 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $56 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $86 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 42% −$114
weather 30% +$228
crypto 23% −$213
other 2% +$116
world 1% +$29
politics 1% +$3
tech 1% +$15
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 42¢ $8 16m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 20¢ $8 27m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 81¢ $24 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $14 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $16 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 46m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 45¢ $18 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 260 -2.8% -12.1% 61% 48% -10.5%
≤30d 557 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 49% -8.2%
≤90d 1120 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 46% -9.0%
all 1120 -2.6% -11.9% 53% 46% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 46% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 37% -17.7%
15% -28.0% 28% -25.6%
20% -35.1% 22% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.11 · official $483.12 (match) · 3500 history records