trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 14 | $15 | $0 | -3% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 14 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $67 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 10 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 10 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | Jun 09 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $69 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 07 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 06 | $31 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $35 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 05 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 04 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 28 | $9 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 26 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Solana dip to $110 in May? | May 23 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Solana dip to $120 in May? | May 22 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? | May 21 | $28 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Apr 18 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | Apr 17 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? | Apr 11 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Apr 10 | $15 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 28? | Mar 30 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 43% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 43% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 26 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 58% | 0% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.4% | 0% | -9.4% |
| 10% | -18.1% | 0% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -26.0% | 0% | -26.0% |
| 20% | -33.3% | 0% | -33.2% |