Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3515…ef87 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-6%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%26W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$27
other 20% −$61
world 5% +$2
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 46% -12.6%
≤30d 48 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 46% -12.6%
≤90d 48 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 46% -12.6%
all 48 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 46% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 46% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 33% -21.0%
15% -26.3% 29% -28.6%
20% -33.5% 25% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses26 / 22
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 +$10 +24%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$19 +91%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$7 +129%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $3 +$12 +392%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$2 -26%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$9 +153%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -92%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -83%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $30 −$29 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -34%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -85%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $21 +$16 +74%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $42 −$35 -83%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$5 +15%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $18 +$2 +14%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 +$35 +336%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -67%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 +$2 +10%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $19 +$3 +16%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$6 +12%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $7 −$5 -69%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 +$4 +93%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +37%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $11 +$8 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $50 38m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $41 54m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $39 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $15 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 4h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $15 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 3¢ $0 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $6 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $8 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $10 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records