Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3513…0660 other 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 674d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$192 (+7%) realized +$164 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate61%37W / 24L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$928now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days+$125
14 days+$125
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$45
crypto 9% +$73
sports 5% +$189
politics 2% $0
tech 0% −$5
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +26.7% +14.7% 55% 55% +38.1%
≤30d 11 +26.7% +14.7% 55% 55% +38.1%
≤90d 11 +26.7% +14.7% 55% 55% +38.1%
all 61 +7.8% -2.5% 61% 33% +19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 33% +19.4%
10% -11.8% 28% +7.9%
15% -20.3% 25% -2.5%
20% -28.1% 18% -12.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

674d coverage
Net worth$928
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses37 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)61 / 67
History coverage674d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 84¢ 84¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $100 $131 +$31 (+31%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? No 81¢ 80¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$23 -77%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$46 -91%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 +$166 +323%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$19 +180%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,000 −$141 -14%
Solana all time high in Q4? Nov 21 $15 +$69 +459%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Nov 07 $25 $0 -2%
Will $BTC reach 75k before October? Sep 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Sep 27 $25 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Sep 27 $10 −$2 -17%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Sep 27 $5 $0 -8%
Will Circle IPO in 2024? Sep 27 $5 −$1 -20%
Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? Sep 27 $3 $0 -6%
Netanyahu out by October 31? Sep 27 $5 $0 -1%
Will Kraken IPO in 2024? Sep 27 $11 $0 +1%
Will $USDT depeg by September 30? Sep 27 $21 $0 +0%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Sep 27 $5 $0 +1%
Trump sentenced to no prison time? Sep 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? Sep 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vinicius Jr win the Ballon D’Or? Sep 26 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Manchester City beat Arsenal? Sep 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win ESL Counter-Strike Champion 2024? Sep 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Ethereum dips below $2,000 by Sept 30? Sep 22 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Apple remain largest company through Sep 30? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crystal Palace beat Leicester City? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool beat Nottingham Forest? Sep 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tottenham vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Sep 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Who will win the debate according to polls? Sep 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will Aston Villa beat Everton? Sep 22 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Manchester City beat Brentford? Sep 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Bengals extend Ja'Marr Chase before regular season? Sep 11 $5 −$5 -100%
US Open: Swiatek vs. Pegula Sep 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bo Nix start Week 1 for the Broncos? Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Drake Maye start Week 1 for the Patriots? Sep 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United States of America win the third most medals in the 202 Sep 11 $5 +$1 +27%
US Open: Sinner vs. Medvedev Sep 11 $5 +$2 +37%
49ers vs. Jets Sep 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Chiefs vs. Ravens Sep 11 $5 +$3 +67%
Eagles vs. Packers Sep 11 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship? Sep 11 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Jayden Daniels start Week 1 for Commanders? Sep 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in August? Sep 04 $156 +$5 +3%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? Aug 28 $5 $0 -1%
Roaring Kitty jail in 2024? Aug 28 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $101 51m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $201 57m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $201 57m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $317 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $101 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 33h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $16 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $29 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $217 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 79¢ $851 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,000 3d
Solana all time high in Q4? SELL Yes 93¢ $84 574d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 587d
Will $BTC reach 75k before October? SELL No 98¢ $35 629d
Will Biden pardon SBF? SELL No 97¢ $25 629d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $927.57 · official $926.32 (match) · 135 history records