Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3511…16ef crypto 124 markets active 6d ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%70W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.9% -22.1% 53% 24% -22.3%
≤30d 71 -14.7% -22.8% 49% 34% -11.5%
≤90d 71 -14.7% -22.8% 49% 34% -11.5%
all 124 -9.7% -18.3% 56% 42% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 42% -11.9%
10% -26.1% 29% -20.3%
15% -33.3% 19% -28.0%
20% -39.8% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses70 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage116d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $8 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $16 +$6 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$5 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$9 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 07 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 07 $4 −$3 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $3 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records