Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3510…d8d3 weather 419 markets active 1h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$330 (-2%) realized −$370 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate83%337W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$548now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$14
14 days+$5
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% −$78
other 25% −$114
crypto 21% −$155
world 12% +$128
politics 6% −$37
tech 3% −$104
economics 1% +$11
culture 1% −$38
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.9% -10.3% 94% 12% -6.6%
≤30d 71 -1.1% -10.5% 89% 17% -8.5%
≤90d 187 -2.0% -11.4% 88% 16% -12.3%
all 407 -2.9% -12.2% 83% 27% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 27% -11.9%
10% -20.6% 14% -20.3%
15% -28.2% 8% -28.0%
20% -35.3% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$26 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$548
Realized−$370
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses337 / 70
Open positions12
Markets (closed)407 / 419
History coverage345d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 95¢ $137 $159 +$23 (+17%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $87 $96 +$9 (+11%)
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $53 $55 +$2 (+3%)
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+6%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? No 96¢ 94¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Weed rescheduled by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 3? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Will John Cornyn win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by bet Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pri Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mullins McLeod win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic pr Jun 10 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 7? Jun 07 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $10 +$7 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $30 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 1? Jun 02 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 1? Jun 02 $30 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? Jun 01 $35 −$3 -9%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close o Jun 01 $10 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 29? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29? May 31 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 30? May 31 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 30? May 31 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on May 29? May 30 $60 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on May 29? May 30 $50 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 28? May 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 28? May 29 $30 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $30 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $30 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 94¢ $35 5d
Weed rescheduled by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 8d
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? BUY No 6¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 96¢ $20 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? BUY No 93¢ $15 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $30 9d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 7? BUY No 97¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 7? BUY No 95¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? BUY No 58¢ $10 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6? BUY No 92¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5? BUY No 99¢ $30 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? BUY No 80¢ $30 13d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4? SELL No 98¢ $40 13d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $40 13d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 4? BUY No 96¢ $30 13d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $50 14d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? SELL No 86¢ $32 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $547.60 · official $547.60 (match) · 1244 history records