Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:28:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x350f…7224 sports 628 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$385 (-3%) realized −$380 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate67%420W / 206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$29
14 days−$48
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$451
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +2.3% -7.5% 86% 36% -7.5%
≤30d 243 -1.2% -10.6% 80% 30% -11.3%
≤90d 612 -1.8% -11.1% 68% 24% -12.8%
all 626 -1.3% -10.7% 67% 24% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 24% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 6% -21.2%
15% -27.1% 2% -28.8%
20% -34.2% 1% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$380
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses420 / 206
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions2
Markets (closed)626 / 628
History coverage99d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 52¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 14¢ 76¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+439%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 87¢ 24¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $13 $0 +3%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $38 +$11 +28%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $18 $0 -2%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $17 +$1 +8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $33 +$4 +11%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $17 +$1 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $17 +$3 +17%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $23 +$4 +18%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $17 +$1 +5%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $17 +$2 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $19 +$1 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $17 +$2 +9%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $17 −$10 -60%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $17 +$1 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $17 +$1 +4%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $17 +$1 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $17 +$2 +10%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $17 +$1 +8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $17 −$10 -59%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $18 +$1 +6%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $17 +$1 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $22 +$4 +17%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $7 $0 +2%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $22 +$3 +16%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $16 +$2 +13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $19 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $32 +$4 +14%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $16 +$2 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $17 −$10 -57%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $16 +$3 +16%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $16 +$1 +9%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 18¢ $2 5m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 16¢ $1 40m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 79¢ $6 40m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 93¢ $6 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 92¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 87¢ $6 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 14¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 15¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 86¢ $6 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 31¢ $2 2h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 70¢ $6 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 22¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 79¢ $6 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 80¢ $10 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 71¢ $10 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 30¢ $2 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 71¢ $6 2h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 71¢ $10 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 93¢ $10 3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 88¢ $10 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 12¢ $1 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 89¢ $6 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 90¢ $10 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 16¢ $1 4h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 85¢ $6 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 15¢ $1 4h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 86¢ $6 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 84¢ $6 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 84¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.21 · official $13.22 (match) · 3043 history records