Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x350b…41e8 crypto 834 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,375 (-1%) realized −$3,398 · open +$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate64%539W / 304L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,427
7 days−$869
14 days−$869
30 days−$869
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$2,695
sports 26% −$1,103
other 4% −$678
finance 2% −$431
tech 1% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +40.1% +26.8% 39% 23% -19.3%
≤30d 31 +40.1% +26.8% 39% 23% -19.3%
≤90d 31 +40.1% +26.8% 39% 23% -19.3%
all 843 +7.8% -2.4% 64% 29% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 29% -11.0%
10% -11.8% 18% -19.5%
15% -20.3% 14% -27.3%
20% -28.1% 11% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$105 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized−$3,398
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses539 / 304
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)843 / 834
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$366
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 843 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 92¢ $229 $253 +$23 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$25 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$15 -1214%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $230 −$4 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $205 $0 +0%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $803 −$800 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $890 −$668 -75%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,305 +$189 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,202 +$79 +7%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $704 −$700 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $603 −$93 -16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,787 +$246 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$29 -29%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$10 -38%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 +$100 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $841 +$50 +6%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $131 +$26 +20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $77 +$249 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $401 +$53 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$59 -39%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $938 +$69 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $189 +$558 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 01 $134 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 01 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 01 $1 +$2 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 01 $925 +$221 +24%
Quinnipiac Bobcats vs. Canisius Golden Griffins Mar 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 01 $856 +$69 +8%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Maryland Terrapins Mar 01 $754 +$103 +14%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Mar 01 $937 +$28 +3%
Boston Terriers vs. American Eagles Mar 01 $1,039 +$114 +11%
Northwestern State Demons vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders Mar 01 $1,419 +$28 +2%
Seattle Redhawks vs. Loyola Marymount Lions Mar 01 $20 +$51 +256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 01 $648 +$103 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 01 $150 −$148 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Mar 01 $200 −$49 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 01 $71 +$129 +182%
Wright State Raiders vs. Northern Kentucky Norse Mar 01 $1,447 −$1,446 -100%
BYU Cougars vs. West Virginia Mountaineers Mar 01 $1,337 +$82 +6%
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles vs. Southeast Missouri State Redhawks Mar 01 $1,284 +$53 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $230 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 92¢ $227 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $230 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 69¢ $202 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $63 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $74 11h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $86 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 91¢ $602 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $636 12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $254 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $1,305 17h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 83¢ $503 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 72¢ $509 19h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 83¢ $101 19h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 60¢ $101 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $301 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 92¢ $200 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $1,002 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $2,026 20h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 83¢ $80 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $72 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $1,004 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 21¢ $16 26h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 32¢ $26 26h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $703 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $252.74 · official $252.54 (match) · 3500 history records