Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3507…71d7 weather 579 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,098 (-4%) realized −$1,091 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate73%416W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$473now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$74
14 days−$389
30 days−$877
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$1,267
world 1% −$87
finance 0% +$24
crypto 0% +$7
other 0% −$30
tech 0% −$5
economics 0% +$4
sports 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.8% -13.0% 83% 68% -12.2%
≤30d 220 -6.0% -14.9% 77% 71% -13.6%
≤90d 567 -3.8% -13.0% 73% 71% -13.4%
all 570 -4.3% -13.5% 73% 70% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 70% -13.5%
10% -21.7% 49% -21.8%
15% -29.3% 19% -29.3%
20% -36.2% 2% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$47 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$473
Realized−$1,091
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses416 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)570 / 579
History coverage92d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 18? No 88¢ 90¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? No 87¢ 83¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 19? No 86¢ 87¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? No 92¢ 91¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? No 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 86¢ 81¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 59¢ 83¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 71¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 4¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 +$13 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$9 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$11 +23%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$11 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $101 +$11 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$9 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$16 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$11 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$16 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$10 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $101 +$24 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $101 +$25 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $50 21m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $50 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 91¢ $50 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 88¢ $50 2h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun BUY No 86¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 86¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 81¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 83¢ $50 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 91¢ $50 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY No 90¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $50 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY No 81¢ $50 6d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 80°F or higher on June BUY No 97¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 85¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 82¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 11? BUY No 81¢ $50 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $50 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.32 · official $472.49 (match) · 1059 history records