Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3506…996c crypto 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,023 (+19%) realized +$1,022 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%90W / 75L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$194
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$917
sports 2% +$21
other 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +54.8% +40.1% 49% 42% -11.7%
≤30d 102 +14.9% +3.9% 55% 40% -17.7%
≤90d 165 +17.5% +6.3% 55% 41% +5.0%
all 165 +17.5% +6.3% 55% 41% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.3% 41% +5.0%
10% ← realistic here -3.9% 35% -5.0%
15% -13.2% 27% -14.2%
20% -21.7% 19% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$1,022
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses90 / 75
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)165 / 169
History coverage36d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 36¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +550%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$6 +208%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +24%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 +$2 +35%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 +$4 +414%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +226%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$38 +1845%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -94%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$6 +325%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 +$4 +344%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$5 -28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$2 -12%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 30 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 30 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 30 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $1 8h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 8h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 17h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $2 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 67¢ $5 19h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 47¢ $2 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 19h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $6 30h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 33h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.04 · official $15.04 (match) · 918 history records